12:30PM ET Update

This is a tropical update for the AllHazards Consortium's Sensitive Information Sharing Environment (SISE).

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. North of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (AL94):
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms extending a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to
westnorthwestward at around 20 mph, continuing north of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then near Hispaniola and the
southeastern Bahamas this weekend. Further development is not
expected due to strong upperlevel winds by early next week.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low
pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of
eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
additional development over the next day or so, and a shortlived
tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves
inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across
portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.