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Crowded or Lonely? The Statistics of Alien Life

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Cool Worlds

New research paper from the Cool Worlds Lab! Today we explore the implications of a classic result in statistics but applied to alien life for the first time. The result implies a startling conclusion, the cosmos is either teeming with intelligent civilizations, or we're essentially alone. Join us today as explore how this works and what the implications might be.

Written & presented by Prof. David Kipping.

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THANKYOU to D. Smith, M. Sloan, L. Sanborn, C. Bottaccini, D. Daughaday, A. Jones, S. Brownlee, N. Kildal, Z. Star, E. West, T. Zajonc, C. Wolfred, L. Skov, G. Benson, A. De Vaal, M. Elliott, B. Daniluk, S. Vystoropskyi, S. Lee, Z. Danielson, C. Fitzgerald, C. Souter, M. Gillette, T. Jeffcoat, J. Rockett, D. Murphree, M. Sanford, T. Donkin, K. Myers, A. Schoen, K. Dabrowski, J. Black, R. Ramezankhani, J. Armstrong, K. Weber, S. Marks, L. Robinson, S. Roulier, B. Smith, J. Cassese, J. Kruger, S. Way, P. Finch, S. Applegate, L. Watson, E. Zahnle, N. Gebben, J. Bergman, E. Dessoi, C. Macdonald, M. Hedlund, P. Kaup, C. Hays, W. Evans, D. Bansal, J. Curtin, J. Sturm, RAND Corp., M. Donovan, N. Corwin, M. Mangione, K. Howard, L. Deacon, G. Metts, R. Provost, B. Sigurjonsson, G. Fullwood, B. Walford, J. Boyd, N. De Haan, J. Gillmer, R. Williams, E. Garland, A. Leishman, A. Phan Le, R. Lovely, M. Spoto, A. Steele, K. Yarbrough, A. Cornejo, D. Compos, F. Demopoulos, G. Bylinsky, J. Werner, B. Pearson, S. Thayer, T. Edris, B. Seeley, F. Blood, M. O'Brien, P. Muzyka, D. Lee, J. Sargent, M. Czirr, F. Krotzer, I. Williams, J. Sattler, J. Smallbon, B. Reese, J. Yoder, O. Shabtay, X. Yao, S. Saverys, M. Pittelli, A. Nimmerjahn, C. Seay, D. Johnson, L. Cunningham, M. Morrow, M. Campbell, R. Strain, B. Devermont, Y. Muheim & A. Stark.

REFERENCES
► Kipping & Geraint 2024, "Do SETI Optimists Have a FineTuning Problem?", International Journal of Astrobiology, submitted (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Oxsj...)
► Jaynes 1968, "Prior Probabilities", IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics , 4, 227: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/...

CHAPTERS
0:00 Aliens!
1:00 Jaynes' Experiment
3:33 What about Drake?
6:31 BirthDeath Balance
9:51 Bridging to Jaynes
11:04 Challenging the Optimists
13:17 Just Sample More Stars?
15:39 Disequilibria
17:22 The Case for SETI
19:31 Outro & Credits

#Aliens #AreWeAlone #CoolWorlds

posted by cumulatge06