In the Tesla Q3 2023 earnings call, Drew Baglino made a statement about the 4680 production ramp that contained a lot of new information. Today I’m going to break down what he said linebyline, what the implications are for the 4680 ramp, and what the impact could be on Tesla’s Cost of Goods sold.
In short, after 3 years of waiting, it appears 4680 cell production is finally poised to deliver on the exponential growth and cell cost reductions that were teased at Battery Day.
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
01:00 4680 Production Growth Rate
02:05 Texas is now the Home of the 4680
02:41 4680 Quality Control and Cost
04:41 4680 Production Starts on Line 2 in Texas
05:48 Converting to 100% Cybertruck Cells
10:53 Phase 2 Expansion Plans
11:48 4680 Capacity Plans for all Locations
13:32 Kato Road Skunkworks
16:32 4680 Ramp // Plans vs Reality
18:23 Projecting the 4680 Production Ramp
18:59 Will the 21% Month over Month Improvement Rate Continue?
21:03 Phase 2 Aligns with my Projections
22:42 Where will the Cells be Used?
25:19 How Much will the 4680 Reduce Vehicle Cost of Goods Sold?
28:29 Closing Thoughts
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said