What role does luck play in football? In sports?

First, we need to figure out how we can measure “luck”…if we can measure it, then we can examine it.

Michael Mauboussin has done some research on this very topic…laying out the different sports from “Skill” to “Luck”. However, this isn’t the main fixation of this video…instead, we focus in on the role of luck in football. Specifically, it’s impact on winning, and losing.

First, we wanted to quantify “luck”. I want to thank Tom Bliss of the NFL for his help with this, as he provided me with a basic framework four “luck” components that are essentially chance events.

Using these components, we can calculate their effects on winprobabilityadded (WPA). This allows us to see who has been lucky…and who has been unlucky.

I also want to thank Ben Baldwin for his time and help in connecting me to Tom…Ben does a wonderful job breaking down the world of football, and (just like Tom) is worth a follow.

00:00 Was this Luck?
00:48 Luck in Football, and Sports
04:19 Quantifying Luck in Football
07:13 Luck in the Postseason
11:30 Luck in the Regular Season


*I do not own any of the rights to the NFL footage used in this video, and this is not a film created by Tom Bliss, or the NFL.