Even if Cipher didn't partake in the Belkan War it seems very unlikely that Belka could have won the conflict. In this video I discuss the several reasons why Belka's objectives were basically impossible.

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ACZ Assault Records https://acecombat.fandom.com/wiki/Ace...
Belkan Air Power #1 http://www.encycstra.net/firsteditio...
Belkan Air Power #2 http://www.encycstra.net/firsteditio...
Belkan Air Power #3 http://www.encycstra.net/secondediti...
Yuktobanian News http://www.encycstra.net/105510541057...